Ethiopia, the second most populous nation in Africa with a population of about 102 million (2016), is the fastest growing economy in the region. Buoyed by the huge expansion in agriculture, construction, and services, and supported by increases in public investments, Ethiopia’s gross domestic product (GDP) has risen by over 10% year-on-year since 2005-06, and poverty rates have fallen from 55.3% at the turn of the century to about 30% in 2017. At this rate, Ethiopia is on track to become a lower-middle-income country by 2025(1)
Recent trends in economic growth notwithstanding, the average income in Ethiopia is very low (US$ 783 in 2017) and roughly 30% of Ethiopians live in poverty and are vulnerable to food insecurity (2) Literacy rates among the country’s youth between 15 and 29 years of age, which account for 29% of the country’s population, are low (47% for women and 63% for men) and are even lower if the entire population over 15 years of age is included [28% for women, 49% for men] (3). While access to education has increased in recent years and primary school enrollment has quadrupled, improvements in learning outcomes and quality of education remain elusive. In addition, Ethiopia faces huge challenges in maternal mortality, nutrition, and gender equality.
Sustaining the double-digit economic growth and accelerating poverty reduction and food security require progress in job creation and improved governance, which are the foundational pillars of the five-year Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP) of the Government of Ethiopia (GoE). GTP I was implemented between 2010-11 and 2014-15, a period that saw a steady increase in GDP, falling rates of unemployment, and the transition of the labor force from agriculture to construction and services (4) GoE is currently implementing GTP 2, covering the period 2015-16 to 2019-20, and is mobilizing internal and external resources through bilateral and multilateral cooperation.
In supporting Ethiopia’s ambitious socioeconomic agenda, Save the Children, funded by USAID, is implementing a five year (2015-2019) USAID’s Building the Potential of Youth Activity (POTENTIAL), together with four local NGO partners, that aims to reach 34,570 youth aged 15-29 from 30 rural woredas in six regions. The goal of the project is to build the economic potential of unemployed and underemployed urban and rural youth by helping them attain relevant skills, knowledge, and social capital that lead to increased income and economic self-sufficiency. POTENTIAL builds the capacity of youth through five distinct training methodologies that emphasize employability and life skills, financial literacy, and micro-entrepreneurship. Youth and communities also support 'Youth Economic Strengthening services, which are a cost-effective and participatory approach that link youth to private sector opportunities and other services including additional education. Through the combination of YES services and youth capacity building, POTENTIAL effectively networks youth, communities, the private sector, and public institutions to promote improved economic opportunity
The five-year Activity is being implemented under a Cooperative Agreement (# AID-663-A-15-00006) between USAID and a group headed by Save the Children, Inc. (SC), including Education Development Center, Inc. (EDC), HUNDEE-Oromo Grassroots Development Initiative (HUNDEE), Professional Alliance for Development in Ethiopia (PADet), Relief Society of Tigray (REST) and Facilitator for Change Ethiopia (FCE). Awarded on January 1, 2015, and running until December 2019, the POTENTIAL Activity is currently in its fifth year of implementation. The Activity has three objectives
Targeted to reach 34,537 unemployed or underemployed rural youth in the 15–29 age group, POTENTIAL Activity focuses on the most vulnerable sections of the society, particularly women, and those transitioning out of pastoralism. Currently, the Activity operates in 30 woredas of Afar, Amhara, Oromia, SNNP, Somali and Tigray region. It is achieving its objectives by:
II. Rationale of the study
Increasingly, donors and development partners place the assumed relation between youth empowerment and employment, and mitigating unsafe migration central in all youth development programs. The question remains if such a direct link be claimed or to what extent it can be attributed to programs working on youth workforce development. Data and evidence specifically related to migration of rural youth in Ethiopia and its determinants is scarce. Literature is mainly concentrated on international migration and formal employment in urban areas. And even though some studies give insight into the relation between formal higher education and migration, the relation between other forms of soft skill building and its effects on migration is limited. Furthermore, the contribution of the existing youth workforce development programs to mitigate the migration problem is not sufficiently studied
This study therefore tries to contribute to a better understanding of the relation between, transferable soft skill trainings, youth employment and their correlation with unsafe migration.
III. Objective of the Study
The general objective of the study shall be to assess the prevalence and magnitude of youth irregular/unsafe migration and the factors associated with it with a special emphasis to the contribution of development programs including USAID’s Building the Potential of youth project to minimize the problem; this case study will be carried out in selected intervention woredas of POTENTIAL involving the beneficiary youths and other stakeholders. The study may follow a qualitative, quantitative or mixed method approach to collect information
The study is primarily intended to provide basic data and recommendations on under the following specific objectives
· To learn and understand the type and magnitude of primary and secondary migration incidence on the studies area.
· To identify different strategic intervention approaches and methods applied by POTENTIAL Activity to improve youth livelihood.
· To find out how much of the potentially migrant youth are addressed by different designed development programs including POTENTIAL project.
· To find out the impact of POTENTIAL’s intervention to bring change on attitudes, behaviors, skills and sustainable income and stability of the youth community group.
· To assess the challenges faced by different development programs including POTENTIAL due to youth migration/trafficking in the course of program implementation
IV. Methodology
The consultant will design appropriate consultancy service delivery methodologies (quantitative and qualitative) and tools for consultancy service which are aligned with the objectives of the study. The consultant will submit the detailed consultancy service delivery methodology plan and work-plan prior to starting consultancy service.
V. Scope of the study
The study shall consider taking a representative sample and shall be limited to the total population of the Activity. Geographically, POTENTIAL operates in 30 woredas of Afar, Amhara, Oromia SNNP, Somali and Tigray regions. The consultant will draw a reasonable sample from among the 32,000 trained male and female beneficiaries residing in the target woredas.
It is up to the consultant to propose the most feasible sampling size with in the given range for this particular context.
The consultant is also expected to conduct at least four individual case studies on selected returnees to capture a more personalized experience, with in-depth approach to interviewing. The underlying assumption for this is that youth are more comfortable in giving detailed information around sensitive subjects, such as aspirations, frustrations, and other factors driving migration during one-on one interview.
VI. Data recording, processing and analysis
In terms of analysis it is expected that adequate statistical analysis is undertaken, using statistical software packages. That should include correlations of individual economy, gender equality and level of income and production. The analysis should provide answers to the stated objectives. The data should be disaggregated for various categories, depending on the type of question, including gender, age and socio -ecological regions.
VII. Deliverables of the consultant
SCI expects from the consultant(s) to:
· Detailed work plan with milestones.
· Inception report which may include the process of data collection analysis and report writing. The report shall be submitted after 5 working days of the inception meeting
· Documentation of the key lessons for POTENTIAL
· Clear methodology along with qualitative and quantitative study instruments and indicator measurement, analytical approach and robustness check approach
· Draft complete study report and presentation to POTENTIAL
· Final report, incorporating suggestions and recommendations (at the end of the consultancy assignment one week after draft report presentation).
· Submit all data files/ audios/photos in printed and electronic format and completed questionnaires
VIII. Tentative time frame
Activity | Responsible | Deadline |
Deadline for application by the consultant | Consultancy firm | March 25, 2019 |
Selection of consultancy and contract signature | SCI | March 30, 2019 |
Delivery of inception report, including the clear design, methodology, tools and timeline for the data collection and analysis for the evaluation | Consultancy firm | April 7 ,2019 |
Feedback on the inception report | SCI | April 10, 2019 |
Incorporation of feedback of SCI in the inception report | Consultancy firm | April 15 , 2019 |
Desk review of documents; selection and training of data collectors | Consultancy firm | April 25,2019 |
Data Collection and Analysis | Consultancy firm | May 30, 2019 |
First Draft report review meeting/validation | SCI and Consultancy firm | May 10, 2019 |
Feedback on the first draft | SCI | May 25 , 2019 |
Submission of final report | Consultancy firm | June 10 , 2019 |
Dissemination of the final report | SCI | ,June 20, 2019 |
It is anticipated that this consultancy will be undertaken in April 2019 with an effective input of 60 working days. However, the lead consultant will prepare a detailed work plan that will form part of the contract
IX. Term of payment
Term of payment will be determined later
X. Qualification and experiences of the consultant;
In general, the consultant or the consultancy firm should have practical experiences at least in the following competency areas;
XI. Education
· The lead consultant shall have advanced university degree in sociology, economics, statics, public health or other related field of studies
· Relevant short term trainings to complement the qualification
XII. Experience
· Minimum of twelve years of proven and strong research experience in the development of national employment policies and / or national migration policy;
· A good understanding of migration dynamics and issues related to youth task force development in Ethiopia would be an added advantage;
· A good knowledge of statistical systems is considered an asset.
· Committed to deadlines
· Excellent writing and verbal communication skills in English.
· The consultant is expected to bring at least one team member with excellent knowledge of SPSS, STATA, or other statistical software who has very good experience in coding, entering and processing of the data.
· Experience in managing and analysing qualitative research data.
· Experiences in communication and facilitating learning workshops
Qualification and experiences of the consultant;
In general, the consultant or the consultancy firm should have practical experiences at least in the following competency areas;
Education
· The lead consultant shall have advanced university degree in sociology, economics, statics, public health or other related field of studies
· Relevant short term trainings to complement the qualification
Experience
· Minimum of twelve years of proven and strong research experience in the development of national employment policies and / or national migration policy;
· A good understanding of migration dynamics and issues related to youth task force development in Ethiopia would be an added advantage;
· A good knowledge of statistical systems is considered an asset.
· Committed to deadlines
· Excellent writing and verbal communication skills in English.
· The consultant is expected to bring at least one team member with excellent knowledge of SPSS, STATA, or other statistical software who has very good experience in coding, entering and processing of the data.
· Experience in managing and analysing qualitative research data.
· Experiences in communication and facilitating learning workshops
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